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Occupancy Duration and the Analysis of Residential Change

Department of Geography, Birkbeck College, University of London

This paper presents a technique for analysing the processes of population change which occur within an existing stock of housing. The first signs of residential change appear in changing occupancy duration, with turnover rates increasing or decreasing as the new pattern becomes established. But every area, however stable, has some degree of population change; the problem therefore, is to distinguish the genuine signs of change.

From cumulative duration data, five distinct types of 'sales curves' are derived—the hypothetical limiting cases of occupancy duration-reflecting different probabilities of occupants' leaving or remaining after given lengths of stay. By comparing actual with 'predicted' household changes, the essential supports of a stable residential pattern, or the significant changes, can be isolated.

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