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Population Dynamics in Ethnically Diverse Towns: The Long-term Implications of Immigration

Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, Crawford House, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK, ludi.simpson{at}manchester.ac.uk

Vasilis Gavalas

Department of Geography, University of the Aegean, University Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece, bgav{at}geo.aegean.gr

Nissa Finney

Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, Crawford House, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK, nissa.finney{at}manchester.ac.uk

Ethnically diverse urban areas are often strongly influenced by the demographic consequences of immigration. A dynamic model of population, housing and social change following immigration is proposed and then tested using a time-series of census data for northern English towns. The results show how natural growth generates dispersal of immigrant populations to new clusters. They chart the changing nature of cities and challenge the interpretation of clustering as a negative phenomenon representing retreat and separation. Instead, the focus is moved to indicators of migration, demand for housing and services, and social equality. The post-immigration demographic cycle proposed is a general one that may be tested in many other situations and countries.

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