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Transport Implications of Urban Containment Policies: A Study of the Largest Twenty-five US Metropolitan Areas

Daniel A. Rodriguez is in the City and Regional Planning Department, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, CB 3140, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-3140, USA, danrod{at}unc.edu

Felipe Targa

InterAmerican Development Bank, Finance and Infrastructure Division RE1/F11, 1300 New York Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20577, felipet{at}iadb.org

Semra A. Aytur

Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Bank of America Center, 137 E. Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514, USA, aytur{at}email.unc.edu

Despite earlier attempts to evaluate the consequences of urban containment policy adoption, the transport implications of these policies have been overlooked. This paper examines the impact that containment policies have on population density and vehicle miles travelled per capita. An empirical analysis is conducted, relying on a fixed-effects model for panel data for the largest 25 metropolitan areas in the US during the 1982-94 time-period. Because the outcomes are endogenously related, instrumental variable regression is used to test hypotheses about the effect of the presence and age of containment policies on travel. The findings suggest that local containment policies and state-level involvement in enabling or mandating growth management are associated with higher population density and more miles travelled. The results uncover unanticipated relationships of containment policies and travel outcomes, and underscore the importance of a co-ordinated strategy to mitigate some of the potential travel consequences of containment policies.

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