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Time-series Analysis of Clusters in City Size Distributions

South Carolina Co-operative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Program in Policy Studies, Clemson University, G27 Lehotsky Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA, agarmes{at}clemson.edu

Craig R. Allen

South Carolina Co-operative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Program in Policy Studies, Clemson University, G27 Lehotsky Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA, allencr{at}clemson.edu

K. Michael Bessey

Program in Policy Studies, Clemson University

Complex systems, such as urban systems, emerge unpredictably without the influence of central control as a result of adaptive behaviour by their component, interacting agents. This paper analyses city size distributions, by decade, from the south-western region of the United States for the years 1890-1990. It determines if the distributions were clustered and documents changes in the pattern of clusters over time. Clusters were determined utilising a kernel density estimator and cluster analysis. The data were clustered as determined by both methods. The analyses identified 4-7 clusters of cities in each of the decades analysed. Cities cluster into size classes, suggesting variability in growth rates at different scales.

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