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Road Traffic Change: A Catalyst for Segregation?

Institute of Transport Economics, PO Box 6110 Etterstad, N-0602, Oslo, Norway, tbj{at}toi.no

The paper presents the results from a study of whether road traffic changes can trigger segregation processes in accordance with Thomas Schelling's 'tipping-point model'. Based on register information of all persons who have lived in inner Oslo east in five neighbourhood types that differ with respect to road traffic development during the 1990s, it is concluded that there is a pattern of relocation quite consistent with the tipping-point model but only for some groups and in some neighbourhood types. There are more rapid and profound patterns of relocation in neighbourhoods with road traffic increase, than in neighbourhoods with traffic reductions and, in particular, families with children relocate in response to changes in the physical and social characteristics of the neighbourhood.

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