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Testing the 'Popsicle Test': Realities of Retail Shopping in New 'Traditional Neighbourhood Developments'

Randall Bartlett

Department of Economics, Smith College, Pierce Hall 102, Northampton, Massachusetts 01063, USA, rbartlett{at}smith.edu

The economic viability of 'local walk-to shopping' districts in newly designed 'traditional neighbourhood developments' in the US is examined. Evidence is presented on: the scale and density of development acceptable to Americans; planners' preference for walkable neighbourhoods; and, the size of retail establishments necessary for economic profitability. Data on household expenditures in various categories are compared with the minimum scale for retail outlets to determine development density necessary to support such stores by walk-to shoppers. Alternatively, assuming acceptable development densities, the proportion of shoppers who will have to drive to the retail stores in the development area is examined. The evidence indicates little chance of neighbourhood retail districts surviving on local walk-to shoppers alone.

Urban Studies, Vol. 40, No. 8, 1471-1485 (2003)
DOI: 10.1080/0042098032000094397
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