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The Determinants of Temporary Rural-to-Urban Migration in China

School of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332-0615, USA, Haizheng.li{at}econ.gatech.edu

Steven Zahniser

Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 1800 MStreetNW, RmN5134, Washington, DC20036-5831, USA, zahniser{at}ers.usda.gov

This paper evaluates the impact of various explanatory factors on temporary rural-to-urban migration in China using a series of probit models of the migration decision. The empirical basis of this work is a sample of 11 924 individuals, age 16-35 years, drawn from the 1995 data of the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP). We find that the profiles for migration-age and migration-education are both quadratic, with the least-educated and most-educated members of rural society being less likely to migrate. In addition, the marginal effect of education tends to be higher for men than for women. An increase in farming income reduces the probability of migration, while the amount of land controlled by a household does not have a significant effect on migration in most provinces.

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