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Determinants of Urban Migration: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Department of Economics, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, IN 47809, USA, ecchen{at}isugw.indstate.edu

N. Edward Coulson

Department of Economics, Penn State University, State College, PA 16802, USA, fyj{at}psu.edu

This study seeks the causes of variation in the amount of migration to Chinese cities over the period of 1995-99. We use a city fixed-effect model with lagged values of 'pull' factors for each city. While wage income shows no significant influence on migration, per capita gross city income does, suggesting that migrants seek returns above and beyond mere wages. Our regression results show that cities with high ratios of the manufacturing and service sectors grow most rapidly. We find that the developmental environment and the job-creation potential of the private sector, indicated by the number of proprietors per capita, make a significant difference in attracting migrants. Except for government fiscal expenditures, we find the attributes of the quality of urban life, such as housing-market conditions and transport, have little explanatory power.

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