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Changes in the Scale and Size Distribution of US Metropolitan Areas during the Twentieth Century

Office of Policy Development and Research of the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, Washington, DC 20410, USA, Steven_R._Ehrlich{at}hud.gov

Joseph Gyourko

Department of Real Estate and Finance, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Lauder Fisher Hall, 256 South 37th Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6330, USA, gyourko{at}wharton.upenn.edu

The scale and size distribution of US metropolitan areas from 1910 to 1995 are documented and analysed. The data show that the country's population became increasingly concentrated, prior to the Second World War, in the largest metropolitan areas in the top decile of the size distribution by population. The data leave little doubt that the largest labour market areas became increasingly attractive places in which to live and work during this time. In contrast to this pre-war trend, the data since 1950 show a loss of population share for the largest metropolitan areas in the top decile of the population size distribution. This loss of share by very large areas is not counterbalanced by increasing share among small or medium-sized metropolitan areas. Rather, the share is captured by the next-largest group of areas in the adjacent decile of the size distribution. Thus, while there is evidence of declining share for the very largest areas, there is no evidence that the rise of the services/information sectors of the economy has made small or medium-sized areas especially attractive places in which to live or work in the post-war era. In addition, the data provide only limited support for the hypothesis that a decline in the desirability of large metropolitan areas could account for the decline of many of the nation's larger central cities.

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