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Dynamic Equilibrium of the Housing Market

Department of Building and Real Estate, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, bsrtse{at}polyu.edu.hk.

James R. Webb

Department of Building and Real Estate, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, j.webb@popmail. csuohio.edu.

This paper, derived within a general equilibrium framework, demonstrates that housing price can be explicitly expressed as a combination of an exponential and linear function of housing rental. This model provides an explanation as to why housing appreciation may not match inflation in the long-run steady state. We show that only under a very particular set of conditions, will housing prices grow at a rate greater than the inflation rate. Evidence from the Hong Kong housing market supports the predictions of theory. Our model indicates that the housing market will be in the long-run steady state when the rent-value ratio is equal to the net discount rate.

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