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Urban Studies, Vol. 36, No. 10, 1769-1782 (1999)
DOI: 10.1080/0042098992818
© 1999 Urban Studies Journal Limited

Housing Vacancy and Rental Adjustment: Evidence from Hong Kong

Raymond Y. C. Tse

Department of Building and Real Estate, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, bsrtse{at}polyu.edu.hk.

Bryan D. MacGregor

Centre for Property Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3UF, UK, b.d.macgregor{at}abdn.ac.uk.

The traditional rental adjustment equation is flawed in that the equilibrium paths for the adjustment of rents and vacancy rates cannot hold simultaneously over time. This paper suggests a two-equation model of rental adjustments based on adaptive expectations rather than the single-equation model presented in the traditional literature, and provides empirical tests. Annual data from the housing market in Hong Kong during the 1980-96 period are consistent with the adjustment equation. The results also show that the rate of change of real rents is neutral with respect to inflation.


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