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Changing a Decision Taken under Uncertainty: The Case of the Criminal's Location Choice

Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University, 52900 Ramat-Gan, Israel, jdeutsch{at}ashur.cc.biu.ac.il.

Gil S. Epstein

Department of Economics, Bar-llan University, 52900 Ramat-Gan, Israel, epsteig{at}ashur.cc.biu.ac.il., Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, England, UK

In this paper we analyse the allocation of criminal activity over the metropolitan area over time. At each period of time, the criminal must choose in which area to commit his/her next offence. The criminal's expectations regarding his/her utility as a function of the probability to be apprehended are updated in the process of work. We find general conditions, under which the criminal determines his optimal location strategy. A direct policy implication of our model suggests that spillover effect is the result of changing police activities.

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