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A Synthetic Approach to Estimating the Impacts of Telecommuting on Travel

Patricia L. Mokhtarian

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis, CA 95616, USA, plmokhtarian{at}ucdavis.edu

A multiplicative model is proposed as a framework for examining the current knowledge in forecasting the demand for telecommuting and the resulting transport impacts. A running illustrative example (containing a base and a future case) is developed, using plausible values for each factor in the model. The base case suggests that 6.1 per cent of the workforce may be currently telecommuting, with 1.5 per cent doing so on any given day, eliminating at most 1 per cent of total household vehicle-miles travelled. Future reductions could be smaller as commute distances of telecommuters become more average and as the stimulation effect of telecommuting grows. In any event, it is likely that—due to counteracting forces—the aggregate travel impacts will remain relatively flat into the future, even if the amount of telecommuting increases considerably.

Urban Studies, Vol. 35, No. 2, 215-241 (1998)
DOI: 10.1080/0042098984952
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