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Modelling Sustainable Home-ownership: Demographics or Economics?

Department of Economics, Faculty of Urban and Regional Studies, P.O. Box 219, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6 AW, England, UK, g.p.meen{at}reading.ac.uk

According to recent official projections, 4.4 million new households will be formed in England between 1991 and 2016. These estimates are based on a detailed analysis of demographic trends, but take no account of the effect of potential changes in economic conditions, particularly on the owner-occupancy rate. In this paper, we propose a new approach to modelling sustainable owner-occupancy which places less emphasis on demographics, but considers in more detail the role of market mechanisms through changes in house prices and rates of new construction.

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