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A Theory of Urban Decline: Economy, Demography and Political Elites

University of Köln, Greinstrasse 2, D-5000 Köln 41. Germany

During the past decades, large cities in advanced industrialised countries have experienced different demographic and economic trajectories. Some are continuing to grow in population and jobs; many have experienced decline. To account for the process of decline and its consequences, a general model of urban decline is proposed. It specifies the relationship between employment, population, political élites and urban fiscal revenues. Constructs and propositions are drawn from economic and ecological theorems. Empirical evidence is based on literature predominantly from Germany and the US.

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