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A Framework for Speculating about Future Urban Growth Patterns in the US

Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 113 Brattle Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. USA

This article undertakes a formalised speculation about the ways in which patterns of urban development in the US may exacerbate or relieve the manifold problems of the declining central city and the growth problems of the suburbs. To this end, it defines an appropriate conceptual framework, and examines certain evidence about post-war trends in urban development. Urban patterns are seen as being shaped by certain entities (which we have called 'Locators') making location choices, in which they assess disparities in the circumstances of alternative places relating to the needs and goals of the Locator. We give special attention to the issue of the relative accessibility of alternative places. Although the major focus, because of data limitations, is on city versus suburb, we also offer some evidence and some speculations about development trends within the suburbs. The key questions for the future are defined as follows: how will the mix of Locators and their requirements change; how will place disparities change; and how will the relative accessibility of places change?

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