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The Distribution of School-Leaver Unemployment Within Scottish Cities

Centre for Educational Sociology, the University of Edinburgh

Brian G. M. Main

Department of Economics at the University of St. Andrews

David Raffe

Centre for Educational Sociology, the University of Edinburgh

This paper examines the phenomenon of intra-urban unemployment in the context of school-leaver unemployment in Scottish cities. Unlike much of the previous work in this area, the paper avoids the 'ecological fallacy' by utilising data on individual school leavers from the 1981 Scottish School Leavers Survey in conjunction with detailed Small Area Statistics from the 1981 decennial Census. Probit analysis is employed to avoid certain statistical problems. The results indicate that in terms of employment probabilities there is little evidence of any 'area effects' within Scottish cities. In this sense there is one urban labour market in which personal characteristics matter, but where area of residence is of little import. These findings were found to hold in Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow. Within each of these cities the effects of inter-city variations in unemployment rates was found to fail disproportionately on the less qualified and less advantaged young job seekers.

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