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Technical Change and the Urban Development Cycle

CES, 5, Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SS

The paper describes the pronounced 'long swings' or 'urban development cycles' of 20-30 years duration which have created successive waves of urbanisation in the British economy since the Industrial Revolution, and which can be related to successive long waves of technological development within the economy as a whole. A more detailed examination of the post-war period shows that in each sector of building two types of shorter cycles, causing pronounced building booms and slumps, are superimposed on the dominant long swing of post war urban development. The discussion concludes by examining the prospects for the next urban development cycle in Britain related to the new wave of micro-electronic and information technologies, and then draws out the main policy implications of the analysis.

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