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Area Policy Impacts: A Multiplier Analysis of GEAR

Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Strathclyde

J.K. Swales

Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde

This paper attempts to quantify the employment and income effects of the Glasgow Eastern Area Renewal (GEAR) programme on its target area. This is done using an augmented Keynesian multiplier approach. The multiplier model is adjusted to take into account the particular characteristics of the injection and the fact that the target area is small and well-integrated within a large conurbation. The results are disaggregated so that the impact of each element of the programme is separately-identified, and the overall results are subject to sensitivity analysis. Although the estimated increases in employment and income are large in absolute terms, they are small relative to the decline that immediately preceded the introduction of the GEAR programme.

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