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The Effects of Racial Composition on Neighbourhood Succession

Edwin L. Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University

This study investigates the extent to which, under segmented housing market conditions, neighbourhood racial composition has a significant influence on the rate of neighbourhood succession. Using Houston and St Louis census tract data, pooled and stratified regression estimates are developed which predict succession as proxied by income changes. Quite strong relationships are found, indicating that nonwhite and racially transitional neighbourhoods tend toward more rapid downward succession than otherwise equivalent white neighbourhoods. Furthermore, this relationship seems to hold over different housing market types and over a wide range of neighbourhood conditions. The source of these differences is also investigated.

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