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An Investigation into the Estimation and Reliability of Urban Shopping Models

University of Sussex Science Policy Research Unit

H.S.D. Cole

University of Sussex Science Policy Research Unit

This paper evaluates the reliability of variants of five urban shopping models : Central Place theory, the Intervening Opportunities model, Gravity model, the Entropy model, and the Building Research Establishment (BRE) model. For each model variant parameters are estimated against data for four towns in the United Kingdom: Coventry, Derby, Watford and Telford, using alternative procedures for testing significance of the calibration. The models are then used to forecast hypothetical changes in local shopping environments, including dynamic effects, such as the progressive decline of local centres. On the basis of the results, some general conclusions are drawn as to the relative performance of the models and the factors determining their reliability in different forecasting situations.

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