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A Study of the Formal Structure of J. W. Forrester's Urban Dynamics Model

Erasmus University, Rotterdam

A. van Gameren

Erasmus University, Rotterdam

B. van der Hee

Erasmus University, Rotterdam

J. Paelinck

Erasmus University, Rotterdam

The 118 basic equations of Forrester's urban dynamics model are analysed by forming them into qualitative structural matrices. It is concluded that the endogenous dynamics of the system are determined by only 42 of the 118 stock variables, thus enabling the majority of the equations to be discarded. In the urban dynamics model, city growth behaviour is found to depend essentially upon an attractiveness-mobility base which conditions labour and unemployment change rates and these in turn influence change rates in housing and management and finally new and mature business growth rates.

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				G. S. Goldstein Recent Developments in Urban Economics American Behavioral Scientist, November 1, 1980; 24(2): 228 - 276.